fix: заменён алгоритм моделирования полиномов и исправлен прогноз (#122)

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Maxim Slipenko 2024-02-22 15:15:56 +03:00 committed by GitHub
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5 changed files with 484 additions and 479 deletions

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@ -23,6 +23,7 @@ disable=
fixme,
missing-docstring,
too-many-public-methods,
too-many-locals,
too-few-public-methods,
too-many-arguments,
broad-except

705
poetry.lock generated
View File

@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
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[[package]]
@ -1268,4 +1353,4 @@ testing = ["big-O", "jaraco.functools", "jaraco.itertools", "more-itertools", "p
[metadata]
lock-version = "2.0"
python-versions = ">=3.8,<3.9"
content-hash = "e8ca19934d2ae7c8fbe0238a777e8d7b8882c86d38a700bdd0495b175f1458fe"
content-hash = "2b8a026bc059c637b81c6e65b372f97283956248272a0c41af0b6d350eec14e8"

View File

@ -20,6 +20,7 @@ pylint = { version = "^2", markers = "python_version < '3.9'" }
sympy = "^1.12"
matplotlib = "^3.7.0"
pillow = "9.5"
scikit-learn = "1.3.2"
[build-system]

View File

@ -1,124 +0,0 @@
# Copyright (c) 2023 Matthew Rocklin
# All rights reserved.
# This source code is distributed under the terms of the BSD license,
# which allows you to use, modify, and distribute it
# as long as you comply with the license terms.
# In addition, this code has been modified by Maxim Slipenko and
# is now also licensed under the GPL-3.0.
# See the GPL-3.0 license for details.
import itertools
from numpy import linalg, zeros, ones, hstack, asarray
from sympy import symbols, Mul, Add, S
def basisVector(n, i):
""" Return an array like [0, 0, ..., 1, ..., 0, 0]
>>> from statapp._vendor.multipolyfit import basisVector
>>> basis_vector(3, 1)
array([0, 1, 0])
>>> basisVector(5, 4)
array([0, 0, 0, 0, 1])
"""
x = zeros(n, dtype=int)
x[i] = 1
return x
def asTall(x):
""" Turns a row vector into a column vector """
return x.reshape(x.shape + (1,))
def multipolyfit(xs, y, deg, full=False, modelOut=False, powersOut=False):
# pylint: disable-msg=too-many-locals
"""
Least squares multivariate polynomial fit
Fit a polynomial like ``y = a**2 + 3a - 2ab + 4b**2 - 1``
with many covariates a, b, c, ...
Parameters
----------
xs : array_like, shape (M, k)
x-coordinates of the k covariates over the M sample points
y : array_like, shape(M,)
y-coordinates of the sample points.
deg : int
Degree o fthe fitting polynomial
modelOut : bool (defaults to True)
If True return a callable function
If False return an array of coefficients
powersOut : bool (defaults to False)
Returns the meaning of each of the coefficients in the form of an
iterator that gives the powers over the inputs and 1
For example if xs corresponds to the covariates a,b,c then the array
[1, 2, 1, 0] corresponds to 1**1 * a**2 * b**1 * c**0
See Also
--------
numpy.polyfit
"""
# pylin
y = asarray(y).squeeze()
# rows = y.shape[0]
xs = asarray(xs)
numCovariates = xs.shape[1]
xs = hstack((ones((xs.shape[0], 1), dtype=xs.dtype) , xs))
generators = [basisVector(numCovariates + 1, i)
for i in range(numCovariates+1)]
# All combinations of degrees
powers = [sum(x) for x in itertools.combinations_with_replacement(generators, deg)]
# Raise data to specified degree pattern, stack in order
a = hstack(asarray([asTall((xs ** p).prod(1)) for p in powers]))
result = linalg.lstsq(a, y, rcond=None)
beta = result[0]
if modelOut:
return mkModel(beta, powers)
if powersOut:
return beta, powers
if full:
return result, powers, a
return beta
def mkModel(beta, powers):
""" Create a callable python function out of beta/powers from multipolyfit
This function is callable from within multipolyfit using the model_out flag
"""
# Create a function that takes in many x values
# and returns an approximate y value
def model(*args):
numCovariates = len(powers[0]) - 1
if len(args) != numCovariates:
raise ValueError(f"Expected {numCovariates} inputs")
xs = asarray((1,) + args)
return sum(coeff * (xs**p).prod()
for p, coeff in zip(powers, beta))
return model
def mkSympyFunction(beta, powers):
terms = getTerms(powers)
return Add(*[coeff * term for term, coeff in zip(terms, beta)])
def getTerms(powers):
numCovariates = len(powers[0])
xs = (S.One,) + symbols(f'x1:{numCovariates}')
terms = [Mul(*[x ** deg for x, deg in zip(xs, power)]) for power in powers]
return terms

View File

@ -22,7 +22,10 @@ from dataclasses import dataclass
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import sympy as sp
from statapp._vendor.multipolyfit import multipolyfit, getTerms
from sklearn.preprocessing import PolynomialFeatures
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
DIRECT_LINK = 0
INDIRECT_LINK = 1
@ -78,64 +81,99 @@ class RegressionResult:
monomials: list
def commonPolynom(inputData, deg) -> RegressionResult:
x = inputData[:, 1:]
y = inputData[:, 0]
result, powers, data = multipolyfit(x, y, deg, full=True)
(out, mse, scaledResidualVariance,
rSquared, fStatistic) = calculateStats(data, result[0], result[1], y)
def linearPolynom(data):
y = data[:, 0]
x = data[:, 1:]
polyFeatures = PolynomialFeatures(degree=1, include_bias=False)
xPoly = polyFeatures.fit_transform(x)
model = LinearRegression(fit_intercept=True)
model.fit(xPoly, y)
params = np.hstack([model.intercept_, model.coef_])
predictions = model.predict(xPoly)
residuals = y - predictions
mse = mean_squared_error(y, predictions)
rSquared = model.score(xPoly, y)
n = xPoly.shape[0]
k = xPoly.shape[1] + 1
fStatistic = (rSquared / (k - 1)) / ((1 - rSquared) / (n - k))
xWithIntercept = np.hstack([np.ones((n, 1)), xPoly])
varB = mse * np.linalg.inv(xWithIntercept.T @ xWithIntercept).diagonal()
seB = np.sqrt(varB)
tStats = params / seB
monomials = ['c'] + ['x' + str(i) for i in range(1, x.shape[1] + 1)]
residualVariance = np.var(residuals, ddof=k)
scaledResidualVariance = residualVariance / (n - k)
paramsAndTStats = np.vstack((params, tStats)).T
return RegressionResult(
out.to_numpy(),
np.float64(mse),
np.float64(scaledResidualVariance),
np.float64(rSquared),
np.float64(fStatistic),
['c' if str(x) == '1' else str(x) for x in getTerms(powers)]
paramsAndTStats,
residualVariance,
scaledResidualVariance,
rSquared,
fStatistic,
monomials
)
def linearPolynom(inputData) -> RegressionResult:
return commonPolynom(inputData, 1)
def squaredPolynom(data):
y = data[:, 0]
x = data[:, 1:]
polyFeatures = PolynomialFeatures(degree=2, include_bias=False)
xPoly = polyFeatures.fit_transform(x)
def squaredPolynom(inputData) -> RegressionResult:
return commonPolynom(inputData, 2)
model = LinearRegression(fit_intercept=True)
model.fit(xPoly, y)
params = np.hstack([model.intercept_, model.coef_])
def calculateStats(data, params, residues, y):
# pylint: disable-msg=too-many-locals
predictions = model.predict(xPoly)
residuals = y - predictions
mse = mean_squared_error(y, predictions)
k = len(params) # Количество оцениваемых параметров (коэффициентов)
n = len(data) # Количество наблюдений
rSquared = model.score(xPoly, y)
# Степень свободы (degrees of freedom) для остатков
dof = n - k # Количество наблюдений минус количество оцениваемых параметров
# Остаточная дисперсия (Mean Squared Error, MSE)
mse = residues / dof
# Среднее значение остатков
meanResiduals = np.sum(residues) / dof
# Масштабированная остаточная дисперсия
scaledResidualVariance = residues / meanResiduals ** 2
# Ковариационная матрица коэффициентов
cov = mse * np.diagonal(np.linalg.inv(data.T @ data))
# Стандартные ошибки коэффициентов
se = np.sqrt(cov)
# T-статистики для каждого коэффициента регрессии
tStatistics = params / se
n = xPoly.shape[0]
k = xPoly.shape[1] + 1
# R-squared (коэффициент множественной детерминации)
sst = np.sum((y - np.mean(y)) ** 2) # Сумма квадратов отклонений
rSquared = 1 - (mse[0] / sst)
# F-statistic (статистика Фишера)
fStatistic = (rSquared / (k - 1)) / ((1 - rSquared) / (n - k))
out = pd.DataFrame()
out[0] = params
out[1] = tStatistics
xWithIntercept = np.hstack([np.ones((n, 1)), xPoly])
varB = mse * np.linalg.pinv(xWithIntercept.T @ xWithIntercept).diagonal()
seB = np.sqrt(np.maximum(varB, 0))
return out, mse[0], scaledResidualVariance, rSquared, fStatistic
tStats = params / seB
monomials = ['c'] + list(
polyFeatures.get_feature_names_out(['x' + str(i) for i in range(1, x.shape[1] + 1)])
)
monomials = [monomial.replace(' ', '*') for monomial in monomials]
residualVariance = np.var(residuals, ddof=k)
scaledResidualVariance = residualVariance / (n - k)
paramsAndTStats = np.vstack((params, tStats)).T
return RegressionResult(
paramsAndTStats,
residualVariance,
scaledResidualVariance,
rSquared,
fStatistic,
monomials
)
def prediction(inputData, result: RegressionResult):
@ -153,8 +191,12 @@ def prediction(inputData, result: RegressionResult):
results = []
numVars = inputs.shape[1]
symbolsStr = ' '.join([f'x{i}' for i in range(1, numVars + 1)])
symbols = sp.symbols(symbolsStr)
for y, xValues in zip(outputs, inputs):
subsDict = dict(zip(expr.free_symbols, xValues))
subsDict = dict(zip(symbols, xValues))
predictedResult = expr.subs(subsDict)
difference = predictedResult - y